Houthis Expected to Persist as Challenge for Shippers in 2024
The alterations in worldwide shipping routes prompted by Houthi militia assaults on merchant ships have resulted in the redirection of USD 80 billion (EUR 73 billion) worth of cargo from the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. These waterways typically accommodate approximately 12 percent of global commercial maritime freight traffic.
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On March 3rd, a British cargo vessel transporting fertilizer was sunk following an attack by the Houthis, while on March 4th, three communications cables were severed in Yemen-controlled waters.
Looking ahead, Glenn Riggs, Chief Shipping Officer at Odyssey Logistics, anticipates that the Houthis will persist as a significant challenge for shippers throughout 2024. Riggs warns that beyond causing delays, these disruptions could lead to spikes in goods inflation, potentially increasing by up to 2 percent due to the raids. Despite U.S. and U.K. military actions against the Houthis, piracy activities show no signs of abating, prompting supply chain professionals to closely monitor the situation in the Red Sea and its associated instabilities.
Riggs identifies additional threats to the global shipping trade, including low water levels limiting usage of the Panama Canal and the looming threat of a strike by the 70,000 dockworkers in the U.S. International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The timing of the ILA strike, scheduled shortly before the U.S. presidential election, may exacerbate supply chain instability.
To navigate these challenges, Riggs recommends diversification as a survival strategy for companies reliant on international shipping, emphasizing the importance of flexibility in risk management approaches.
According to Container xChange, a shipping industry analytics firm, rates are projected to decline by approximately 30 percent between February and April, following the typical post-holiday season drop.
In February, shipping prices remained steady in North America, declined by 5 to 7 percent in Europe, increased by 10 percent in Northern Asia, rose by 7 percent in Oceania, and grew by 2.5 percent in Southeast Asia, as reported by Container xChange CEO Christian Roeloffs. Roeloffs notes that March marks the beginning of the contract season for many shipping companies, influencing shipping rates and capacity utilization. While March experiences increased demand compared to the post-Chinese New Year period, it is not as robust as other peak seasons.
Consumer concerns about prices, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty regarding interest rates are expected to continue impacting consumer goods markets in the near term.